Thursday, August 30, 2012

A Romney-Ryan Landslide?

I think it's normal for people to play it safe and say the 2012 presidential election is going to be close. The media has predicted nearly every election in my memory to be close, so why would they change now. It seems to their advantage that it is close. 

Yet despite poll results showing it is a tight race to this day, even Dick Morris said that polls tend to reach democrats more so than republicans. So if the polls show a race is tight, especially when an incumbent should have a large lead, it means the republican is way out ahead. But the media won't tell you that because they want a close election.

Doug Patten, at, wrote a post called, "And It's Romney-Ryan in a Landslide," where he goes out on a limb to predict a landslide victory.  He provides the following argument, a study of which I have also read about elsewhere:  
Now comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, working at CU's Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures, as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. 
Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
So what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).
He also points out that "no president from either party since FDR's second campaign in 1936 has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate even approaching the numbers we are seeing today." 

There you have it, my first prediction on any of my blogs.   Let me know on November 6th what you think.  Or let me know today.  

No comments: